Event Intelligence

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the UK have a Land Value Tax that raises over £10Bn inflation adjusted by 2030?

11.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

EU activates Trade Bazooka against the US before 2027?

16.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will a federal "Major Disaster Declaration" be issued for any US state due to severe weather by March 30th 11:59 PM EST

4.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will SBF, Ryan Salame, or Caroline Ellison place a trade on a prediction market within a year after their release?

46.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)

1%

Avg YES

Manifold $326K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will Nick Fuentes be revealed to be a Fed before 2040?

42%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will "Don't Sell Stock to Donate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

13.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

53%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Any federal MPs floor-cross in the next year?

47%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?

17%

Avg YES

Polymarket $1.7M

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will Javier Milei get inflation below 30% by the end of his term?

85.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

49.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $71K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

90.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the ICE agents who shot Alex Pretti be charged in any federal court?

11.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

WIll the United States Economy avoid a recession by 2029?

37.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?

32.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will this market have 3333 trades by the end of March 15th, 2026?

1%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will you be able to trade against the house on Polymarket or Kalshi before 2028?

13.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will Elon Musk's investment in Twitter beat the NASDAQ?

14.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will US GDP growth be greater than 10% in 2029?

12.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

29.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

42.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

24.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement be applied in 2026, even if provisionally?

91.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K