Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

AI controlled drone dogfights will make a debut in Ukraine by end of war.

46.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will North Korea join the war by the end of april

7.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will US ground troops physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026?

62.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?

4%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel fully annex the west bank by 2045?

23.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel exist two years from now?

97.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be another significant accident in a nuclear power plant before 2035?

21.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will >90% of the Gaza Strip and Israel be part of the same country before 2035?

7.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?

13.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel dismantle any settlements in the West Bank before the end of 2035?

52.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the US conduct additional airstrikes on Iranian soil before April 25, 2026?

96%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran release the seized tanker in the Strait of Hormuz before April 15, 2026?

40%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Conditional on China beating the USA to the Moon, will a female walk on the Moon as part of China's first such mission?

42%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a movie made entirely by artificial intelligence win an Academy Award by 2030?

6.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will "The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 2027 Academy Award

42.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran win the war before March 31 against the United States?

1%

Avg YES

Manifold $11K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel have stricter laws against homosexuality than Saudi Arabia by 2040?

5.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will any active city of at least 100,000 people be destroyed by a nuclear bomb before 2035?

18.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Ukraine suffer nuclear power plant meltdowns during the Russia war?

6.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030?

55.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Iran conflict will be over in 7 days

3.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

13%

Avg YES

Manifold $31K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Ukraine recognize Kosovo before 2030?

69.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

73%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K