Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026?

16.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will there be a 'The Streamer Awards' in 2026?

77%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?

47.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $107K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?

70%

Avg YES

Polymarket $274K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Counter-Strike: Chinggis Warriors vs Alter Ego (BO3) - Asia Championships Closed Qualifier Playoffs

50%

Avg YES

Polymarket $16K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2026?

44.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface?

53.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $10K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will an Israeli participate in IOI 2026

11.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?

50%

Avg YES

Polymarket $224K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will "Frankenstein" win at least 3 Oscar Awards?

99.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $55K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?

0.1%

Avg YES

Polymarket $244K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will If I Had Legs I'd Kick You win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

0%

Avg YES

Polymarket $13K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

46%

Avg YES

Manifold $41K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

0.1%

Avg YES

Polymarket $44K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Iran be a democracy in 2030?

57.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Iran cease to exist in 2026?

3.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Putin flee Russia before the end of 2030?

10.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will a nuclear propelled rocket be tested in space before 2027?

43.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $10K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?

3.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $16K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still be alive by June 1st 2026?

61%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?

20.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $8K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?

23.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $7K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan in 2027?

12.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?

11.8%

Avg YES

Polymarket $270K