Markets / Geopolitics / 100 US troop killed in action with Iran by April 2026?...
Manifold Geopolitics Expires today OPEN

100 US troop killed in action with Iran by April 2026?

6.7%
Market YES
93.3%
Market NO
Trade on Manifold →
Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
11.99%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +5 pts

Market shows low probability of 100 US troops being killed in action with Iran by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 6.99% chance of 100 US troops being killed in action with Iran by April 2026, with a consensus leaning towards 'NO'. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance at 11.99%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 55/100, indicating uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment is heavily skewed towards 'NO'.
  • 2 The market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 5.
  • 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55 out of 100.
  • 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 482 hours.
  • 5 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' than the market.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Escalation of military conflict between the US and Iran
Significant changes in US foreign policy towards Iran
Major incidents involving US troops in the region
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $5,473
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Mar 2026
Status Open
Related Markets
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 3...
99.95% YES polymarket
US forces enter Iran by March 14?...
0.00% NO polymarket
US forces enter Iran by March 7?...
0.00% NO polymarket
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?...
99.95% YES polymarket
US forces enter Iran by March 31?...
1.95% NO polymarket