[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of China attacking or blockading Taiwan in 2026.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong consensus against the likelihood of a Chinese attack or blockade on Taiwan in 2026, with a majority favoring a 'NO' outcome. The Pulse AI model shows a slightly higher probability for 'YES', indicating some divergence in sentiment, but overall confidence remains moderate.

• 1 Market probability for 'YES' is at 13.69%, indicating low confidence in an attack.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 18.69%.
• 3 The edge of 5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55 out of 100, reflecting uncertainty in geopolitical dynamics.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6636 hours, allowing for potential developments.