[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

The market indicates a low likelihood of a bilateral ceasefire before 2027.

Current market probabilities suggest a 28.74% chance of a ceasefire occurring before 2027, with a stronger consensus against it at 71.26%. The Pulse AI offers a slightly higher probability for a ceasefire at 33.74%, indicating some divergence in sentiment but overall skepticism remains prevalent.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome for a ceasefire.
• 2 The probabilities reflect ongoing tensions and lack of progress in negotiations.
• 3 The confidence level of 55/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a 5-point edge, suggesting balanced expectations.