Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Market suggests a low probability of an attack on the Assembly of Experts in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 37.42% chance of a US or Israeli attack on the Assembly of Experts in 2026, with a higher probability of no attack. The Pulse AI model estimates a slightly higher chance for an attack at 42.42%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 55 out of 100, suggesting uncertainty in geopolitical dynamics leading up to the expiry.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards no attack occurring.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing assessments.
• 3 A confidence level of 55 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential geopolitical shifts.
• 5 Market pricing appears balanced with a low edge of 5.