Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Low probability for a prediction market on AI extinction risk before 2028.

The market shows a strong inclination towards a 'NO' outcome, indicating skepticism about the feasibility of a robust prediction market on AI extinction risk before 2028. The Pulse AI probability suggests slightly more optimism, but overall confidence remains moderate, reflecting uncertainty in this emerging field.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 83.41%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher 'YES' probability at 21.59%.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 45 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at over 650 days.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a 5-point edge.