China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

High confidence in China's rebar quality meeting standards by 2025.

The market shows a strong belief that China's rebar failure rate will be below 20% in the upcoming national quality check, with a probability of 95.71% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a lower probability of 86.71%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 9 points.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a YES outcome.
• 2 The market probability indicates strong confidence in quality improvements.
• 3 Historical data on rebar quality may influence future expectations.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, supporting current market dynamics.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with over 3400 hours until expiry.