Civil War in Iran in 2026?

The market suggests a low likelihood of civil war in Iran by 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 27% chance of civil war in Iran by 2026, with a stronger consensus against it at 73%. The Pulse AI model estimates a slightly higher probability of 34% for civil war, reflecting some uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong inclination towards NO civil war.
• 2 Pulse AI's estimate is higher, indicating some divergence in sentiment.
• 3 The edge of 7 suggests insufficient data for a confident assessment.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 50, reflecting uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.