Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?

Market favors no nuclear strike by Iran on Israel if it develops a weapon.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Iran will not use a nuclear weapon against Israel, with a probability of 71.84% for 'NO'. The AI model slightly increases the likelihood of a strike to 33.16%, suggesting some divergence in sentiment but still leaning towards a non-aggressive outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a non-aggressive stance from Iran.
• 2 The AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of a nuclear strike than the market.
• 3 Market probabilities indicate a balanced view, with a low edge of 5 suggesting fair pricing.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 45/100, indicating uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics.