Markets / Other / ICE kills US citizen by end of March 2026...
Manifold Other Expires today OPEN

ICE kills US citizen by end of March 2026

2.07%
Market YES
97.93%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
20.05%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +3 pts

Market shows low probability of ICE killing a US citizen by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a low likelihood (17.05%) of ICE killing a US citizen by the end of March 2026, with a higher probability (82.95%) for the opposite outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge towards the NO outcome.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome significantly.
  • 2 Market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI's assessment.
  • 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
  • 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 493 hours.
  • 5 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge noted.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Increased ICE-related incidents or violence reported
Changes in immigration policy affecting ICE operations
Public sentiment shifts due to media coverage
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $27,205
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Mar 2026
Status Open
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