Markets / Other / Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright?...
Manifold Other Expires in 1187 days OPEN

Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright?

3.41%
Market YES
96.59%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
6.41%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +3 pts

Market strongly favors that Satoshi Nakamoto is not Craig Wright.

The prediction market shows a significant majority believing that Satoshi Nakamoto is not Craig Wright, with a 96.59% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also aligns closely, indicating a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 6.41%, suggesting some uncertainty but overall confidence in the 'NO' stance.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO'.
  • 2 The probability gap indicates strong consensus against Wright's claim.
  • 3 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 45/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
New evidence supporting Craig Wright's claim
Increased public interest or media coverage
Legal developments involving Craig Wright
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $1,607
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2029
Status Open
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