Markets / Geopolitics / Israel strikes Iran after US announces deal (before April 15...
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Israel strikes Iran after US announces deal (before April 15)?

8.45%
Market YES
91.55%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
21%
AI YES
50
Confidence
35
Reliability
Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +7 pts

Low probability of Israel striking Iran before April 15 after US deal announcement.

The market indicates a strong belief that Israel will not strike Iran following a US deal, with an 86% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher likelihood at 21% for 'YES', but overall confidence remains moderate due to insufficient data.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
  • 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing perspectives.
  • 3 Insufficient data leads to a low confidence rating of 50/100.
  • 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 475 hours, adding urgency.
  • 5 Geopolitical developments could rapidly influence market probabilities.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
New intelligence reports suggesting imminent threats from Iran
Changes in US foreign policy or military support dynamics
Escalation of regional tensions involving Iran or its allies
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $193
Liquidity $0
Resolves 14 Apr 2026
Status Open
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