Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?

Market suggests low likelihood of Bolsonaro leaving Brazil before October 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Jair Bolsonaro will not leave Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4, 2026, with a NO probability of 91.52%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a YES outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 91.52%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher YES probability at 11.48%.
• 3 The market is considered fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 4866 hours, allowing for potential developments.