New Iranian Supreme Leader is chosen in March 2026 and killed in March 2026.

Market suggests a low likelihood of the new Iranian Supreme Leader being killed in March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 32% probability of the new Iranian Supreme Leader being chosen and killed in March 2026. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 37%, but both figures suggest skepticism about this outcome. With a confidence level of 55/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability shows a low likelihood of the event occurring.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher but still indicates skepticism.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.