Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026.

Current market probabilities suggest a 33.92% chance of a ceasefire occurring by 2026, with a stronger consensus against it at 66.08%. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors a ceasefire at 38.92%, indicating some divergence in sentiment but overall skepticism remains prevalent.

• 1 Market sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome for a ceasefire.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a stable outlook with limited volatility.
• 3 Current geopolitical tensions contribute to the low likelihood of a ceasefire.
• 4 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 5.
• 5 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating some uncertainty.