Smoking less deadly: will the life expectancy penalty for smokers decrease by 2030?

Market suggests life expectancy penalty for smokers will not decrease by 2030.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that the life expectancy penalty for smokers will remain unchanged by 2030, with a NO probability of 75.02%. Both the market and Pulse AI probabilities are closely aligned, suggesting a consensus on this outlook. The confidence level is moderate, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards NO regarding reduced life expectancy penalties for smokers.
• 2 The probabilities from the market and Pulse AI are closely aligned, indicating consensus.
• 3 The confidence level of 45/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 4 The market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment or information.