Markets / Other / Starmer out before Badenoch?...
Manifold Other Expires in 864 days OPEN

Starmer out before Badenoch?

54.46%
Market YES
45.54%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
TOO CLOSE
Verdict
54%
AI YES
40
Confidence
35
Reliability
Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +5 pts

The market is evenly split on whether Starmer will leave before Badenoch.

Current probabilities indicate a nearly even split between YES and NO, suggesting uncertainty in the market. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors YES, indicating a potential lean towards Starmer's departure. However, the edge score indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market probability shows a tight race between YES and NO.
  • 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight inclination towards Starmer leaving first.
  • 3 Edge score of 5 indicates uncertainty in the data available.
  • 4 Confidence level at 40/100 reflects mixed market sentiment.
  • 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential developments.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major political event affecting Starmer's leadership
Public opinion shifts regarding Starmer's performance
Badenoch's political developments or announcements
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $642
Liquidity $0
Resolves 24 Dec 2028
Status Open
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