United States and Iran reach and formally announce a new agreement by March 20, 2026

Low probability for a U.S.-Iran agreement by March 2026, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood against a new agreement between the United States and Iran by March 20, 2026, with a NO probability of 93.75%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher YES odds at 11.25%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 93.75%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows slightly more optimism with YES at 11.25%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55 out of 100.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 5.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 110 hours, adding urgency to developments.