US Civil War by 1st Jan 2028

Market YES

99%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Market appears fairly priced Edge: +5 pts

Low probability for a US Civil War by 2028, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market indicates a 99% likelihood that a US Civil War will not occur by January 1, 2028. The Pulse AI also supports this view, assigning a 94% probability to the NO outcome. With a confidence level of 45 out of 100, the market appears to be fairly priced, suggesting a stable sentiment regarding this geopolitical scenario.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for a US Civil War.
2 Market probability shows a strong consensus against civil conflict.
3 Historical trends indicate low likelihood of civil wars in stable democracies.
4 Liquidity in this market suggests limited interest in betting on civil conflict.
5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in sentiment but remains low.