US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

The market shows a near-even split on a potential US government shutdown in 2026.

Current probabilities indicate a slight lean towards a 'NO' outcome for a government shutdown on October 1, 2026, with a 52.93% chance. However, the close probabilities and low confidence level suggest significant uncertainty in predicting the outcome. The edge score indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.

• 1 Current market probability is closely divided, reflecting uncertainty.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight lean towards a shutdown probability of 52.07%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, indicating mixed sentiment.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial at 4627 hours, allowing for many developments.
• 5 Edge score of 5 indicates insufficient data for a strong prediction.