us nukes Iran in 2026

4.86%

Market YES

95.14%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

9.75%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Market appears fairly priced Edge: +5 pts

Market shows low probability of U.S. nuclear action against Iran in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against the likelihood of the U.S. using nuclear weapons on Iran in 2026, with a 95.25% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for 'YES,' suggesting some uncertainty in the broader analysis.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing perspectives on risk.
3 Historical context shows low instances of nuclear action in similar geopolitical scenarios.
4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current pricing.
5 Time to expiry allows for potential geopolitical developments to influence probabilities.