Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Low probability of a military conflict causing 1,000+ deaths between Egypt and Israel by 2030.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against the likelihood of a military conflict between Egypt and Israel resulting in 1,000 or more deaths before 2030, with a market probability of 6.73% for 'YES'. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 11.73%, but overall sentiment remains low, reflecting a general belief in stability in the region.

• 1 Current market sentiment is heavily skewed towards 'NO'.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing perspectives.
• 3 Historical context shows low frequency of large-scale conflicts between these nations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, indicating confidence in current pricing.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics.