Markets / Geopolitics / Will a new regime be installed in Iran before April 1st?...
Manifold Geopolitics Expires today OPEN

Will a new regime be installed in Iran before April 1st?

1.69%
Market YES
98.31%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
9.33%
AI YES
60
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +5 pts

Low probability for a new regime in Iran before April 1st.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against the likelihood of a new regime in Iran, with a 95.67% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 9.33%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market probability shows strong skepticism about regime change.
  • 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher chance, but still low overall.
  • 3 Current sentiment reflects stability in Iran's political landscape.
  • 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 380 hours, limiting potential shifts.
  • 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 5.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Significant political unrest or protests in Iran
International sanctions leading to regime instability
Major shifts in leadership or policy announcements
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $2,303
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Mar 2026
Status Open
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