Will China conduct a military exercise around Taiwan before May 1, 2026?

Market leans towards no military exercise by China around Taiwan before May 2026.

The current market probability indicates a 66.37% likelihood that China will not conduct a military exercise around Taiwan before May 1, 2026. In contrast, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 40.63% for a potential exercise, reflecting some uncertainty in the data. The edge score of 7 indicates that there is insufficient data for a confident assessment of the situation.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a 'no' outcome significantly.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance for a 'yes' outcome.
• 3 The edge score indicates uncertainty in the data available.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 863 hours, adding urgency to the market.
• 5 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting mixed signals.