Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Market suggests a low likelihood of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by China by 2028.

The prediction market indicates a 28.25% probability of China launching a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028, with a stronger consensus against such an event at 71.75%. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 33.25%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 50 out of 100, suggesting uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Geopolitical tensions are a key factor influencing predictions.
• 3 Historical context shows varying levels of aggression from China.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting investor confidence.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics.