Markets / Other / Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-...

Manifold Other Expires in 89 days OPEN

Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?

31.98%

Market YES

68.02%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

36.98%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +5 pts

Market leans towards Elon Musk not tweeting about AGI-level performance in 2026.

The current market probability indicates a stronger belief that Elon Musk will not tweet about Grok's AGI-level performance in 2026, with a 68.02% likelihood of a 'NO' outcome. Both the market and Pulse AI probabilities suggest skepticism about the achievement of AGI by that time, reflecting cautious sentiment among participants.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome regarding AGI tweets.
2 Pulse AI shows slightly higher confidence in a 'YES' outcome compared to market probability.
3 The edge of 5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.
4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
5 Market participants may be influenced by ongoing developments in AI research.