Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

The market sees a low chance of fusion providing significant US power by 2050.

Current market probabilities indicate a 35.83% chance that fusion will contribute over 2% of US electrical power by 2050, with a majority (64.17%) predicting it will not. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for a positive outcome at 38.83%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 50/100. Given the time to expiry of over 23 years, the market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.

• 1 Current sentiment leans towards skepticism about fusion's viability by 2050.
• 2 Key factors include technological advancements and regulatory support.
• 3 Historical base rates for new energy sources suggest slow adoption.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting cautious investor interest.
• 5 Time pressure is low with over two decades until the deadline.