Markets / Other / Will "Gemma Needs Help" make the top fifty posts in LessWron...

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Will "Gemma Needs Help" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

9.22%

Market YES

90.78%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

14.22%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +5 pts

Low probability for 'Gemma Needs Help' to reach top fifty posts in LessWrong's review.

'Gemma Needs Help' has a market probability of 9.22% for making the top fifty posts, indicating skepticism among participants. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 14.22%, suggesting some potential interest but still leaning towards a negative outcome. The edge of 5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment of this market.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment is predominantly negative towards the post's success.
2 The significant gap between YES and NO probabilities indicates strong skepticism.
3 Historical trends on LessWrong may influence perceptions of similar posts.
4 Market liquidity appears limited, affecting the robustness of the probabilities.
5 With 16349 hours until expiry, there is ample time for sentiment to shift.