Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Gukesh has a 38.82% chance of winning the 2026 World Chess Championship.

The prediction market indicates a 38.82% probability for Gukesh to win the championship, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 41.82%. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100, indicating moderate certainty in the current probabilities.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards Gukesh not winning.
• 2 The market probability is slightly lower than the AI's estimate.
• 3 A 3-point edge suggests the market is accurately priced.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time until the event allows for significant changes in player form.