Markets / Geopolitics / Will Hamas still be in power in Gaza on Cinco de Mayo 2026?...
Manifold Geopolitics Expires today OPEN

Will Hamas still be in power in Gaza on Cinco de Mayo 2026?

69.93%
Market YES
30.07%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
YES
Verdict
58.93%
AI YES
50
Confidence
35
Reliability
Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: -11 pts

Market indicates a high probability of Hamas remaining in power by May 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards Hamas still being in power in Gaza by Cinco de Mayo 2026, with a probability of 69.93%. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a lower confidence at 58.93%, indicating some uncertainty in the forecast.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment favors Hamas's continued governance.
  • 2 The probability reflects ongoing geopolitical dynamics in the region.
  • 3 Historical trends show fluctuating power among Palestinian factions.
  • 4 Market liquidity is moderate, affecting confidence levels.
  • 5 Time pressure is significant with just over 1100 hours until expiry.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major shifts in regional alliances or conflicts
Significant changes in internal governance or leadership within Gaza
International intervention or peace agreements affecting Hamas's status
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $706
Liquidity $0
Resolves 07 May 2026
Status Open
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