Markets / Other / Will IBM be the first to create a quantum computer with over...

Manifold Other Expires in 12210 days OPEN

Will IBM be the first to create a quantum computer with over 10,000 qubits?

39.41%

Market YES

60.59%

Market NO

Trade on Manifold →

Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

42.41%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Market appears fairly priced Edge: +3 pts

Market leans towards IBM not achieving 10,000 qubits first.

The prediction market indicates a higher likelihood that IBM will not be the first to develop a quantum computer with over 10,000 qubits, with a probability of 60.59% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus that IBM may face challenges in reaching this milestone.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 60.59%.
2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 42.41%.
3 Market confidence is relatively low at 45/100.
4 The edge of 3 indicates the market is fairly priced.
5 Time to expiry is extensive at 296235 hours, allowing for potential developments.