Markets / Other / Will IMO 2026 have exactly 20 gold medalists?...
Manifold Other Expires today OPEN

Will IMO 2026 have exactly 20 gold medalists?

2%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
5%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +3 pts

The market suggests a low likelihood of exactly 20 gold medalists at IMO 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that there will not be exactly 20 gold medalists at IMO 2026, with a 98% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, assigning a 95% probability to the NO outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge towards the NO position.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market probability favors NO at 98%, indicating strong skepticism.
  • 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 95% for NO.
  • 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
  • 4 Time to expiry is significant at 3225 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
  • 5 Current market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Announcement of new events or changes in competition format
Increased participation or changes in athlete eligibility
Emergence of unexpected dominant teams or athletes
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $1,098
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Jul 2026
Status Open
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