Will Iran and the United States establish formal diplomatic relations before 2030?

The market suggests low chances for US-Iran diplomatic relations by 2030.

Current market probabilities indicate a 29.87% chance of formal diplomatic relations between Iran and the United States before 2030, with a stronger consensus against it at 70.13%. The Pulse AI offers a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome at 36.87%, but overall confidence remains low at 45 out of 100, reflecting uncertainty in geopolitical dynamics.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards NO for diplomatic relations.
• 2 The market shows a significant gap between YES and NO probabilities.
• 3 Historical context suggests strained relations complicate diplomatic efforts.
• 4 Liquidity appears limited, indicating cautious investor sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.