Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?

Market indicates a low probability of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon by 2030.

The prediction market shows a 29.12% probability for Iran having a nuclear weapon by 2030, with a stronger consensus against it at 70.88%. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher likelihood of 34.12%, indicating some uncertainty in the market's assessment. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 50 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO'.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' than the market.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 50/100, indicating uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential geopolitical shifts.
• 5 Market pricing reflects a balanced view of current intelligence and historical context.