Will Iran or its proxies launch a successful strike on a US Navy carrier in the Indian Ocean by March 10, 2026?

Market predicts a low chance of a successful strike on a US Navy carrier by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 1% probability of Iran or its proxies successfully striking a US Navy carrier in the Indian Ocean by March 10, 2026, with a strong consensus leaning towards 'NO' at 99%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 5% for a 'YES' outcome, but overall confidence remains moderate at 65/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability of 1% suggests low confidence in a successful strike.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, with only 11 hours remaining.
• 5 Confidence level at 65/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.