Market predicts a low chance of a successful strike on a US Navy carrier by March 2026.
The prediction market indicates a 1% probability of Iran or its proxies successfully striking a US Navy carrier in the Indian Ocean by March 10, 2026, with a strong consensus leaning towards 'NO' at 99%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 5% for a 'YES' outcome, but overall confidence remains moderate at 65/100.