Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026?

Low probability of Iran testing a nuclear weapon before 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of Iran testing a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026, with a 96.23% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher for 'YES' at 8.77%, indicating some uncertainty, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 96.23%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 8.77%.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 6838 hours, allowing for potential developments.