Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?

Low probability for Iran using a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030.

The prediction market indicates a 9.40% chance of Iran using a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability at 14.4%, but both metrics reflect significant skepticism about this scenario occurring.

• 1 Market probability shows strong skepticism about nuclear use by Iran.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 The edge of 5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, reflecting mixed sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.