Markets / Other / Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On Ma...

Manifold Other Expires in 339 days OPEN

Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027?

24.66%

Market YES

75.34%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

33.39%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +5 pts

Market shows low confidence in Kemi Badenoch as Conservative Party Leader by May 2027.

The current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that Kemi Badenoch will not be the Conservative Party Leader by May 1, 2027, with a NO probability of 71.61%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher confidence in her potential candidacy. The edge rating suggests that there is insufficient data to make a confident assessment of her chances.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
2 Badenoch's leadership viability may hinge on future political developments.
3 Market confidence is relatively low, indicated by a 40/100 score.
4 The time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
5 Liquidity in the market is limited, impacting the reliability of predictions.