Markets / Other / Will Mojtaba Khamenei be shown alive on video between March ...
Manifold Other Expires today OPEN

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be shown alive on video between March 8th and April 1, 2026?

1.74%
Market YES
98.26%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
41.89%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +3 pts

Market leans towards Mojtaba Khamenei not being shown alive on video.

The prediction market indicates a higher probability for Mojtaba Khamenei not being shown alive on video, with a 61.11% chance for 'NO'. The AI probability also suggests a similar trend, though slightly more optimistic for 'YES', indicating a divergence in sentiment.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome significantly.
  • 2 AI probability suggests a slightly more favorable view for 'YES'.
  • 3 The market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 478 hours, adding urgency.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Emergence of credible news regarding Khamenei's health or status
Political developments in Iran affecting public visibility of leaders
Changes in public sentiment or media narratives surrounding Khamenei
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $17,159
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Apr 2026
Status Open
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