Will Narendra Modi win a fourth term as leader of India?

Modi's chances for a fourth term are closely contested with a slight edge for 'NO'.

The prediction market indicates a 43.29% probability of Narendra Modi winning a fourth term, while the AI model suggests a slightly higher chance at 46.29%. The close probabilities reflect uncertainty in the political landscape, with both sides having significant support.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans slightly against Modi's re-election.
• 2 The probabilities indicate a competitive race with no clear frontrunner.
• 3 Historical trends suggest incumbents often have an advantage, but not guaranteed.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting ongoing interest.
• 5 Time until the election allows for potential shifts in voter sentiment.