Will North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?

Market suggests low likelihood of North Korea attacking South Korea's islands before 2030.

The prediction market indicates a 22.74% probability of North Korea attacking South Korea's outlying islands, with a stronger consensus against such an event occurring. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors the possibility at 25.74%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 50/100, suggesting uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a low probability of conflict.
• 2 The edge of 3 indicates the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 3 Historical trends show a pattern of restraint from North Korea regarding direct attacks.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.