Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Low probability for the METR paper to make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 review.

The market indicates a strong belief that the 'Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper' will not rank among the top fifty posts, with a NO probability of 87.84%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher confidence in a YES outcome. The edge of 5 suggests that there is insufficient data to make a confident assessment of this prediction.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for the METR paper.
• 2 Market probability shows a significant gap between YES and NO options.
• 3 The Pulse AI's probability is slightly more optimistic than the market.
• 4 The edge of 5 indicates uncertainty and a lack of strong data.
• 5 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.