Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026?

Market shows a slight lean towards OpenAI maintaining its military red lines by 2026.

The market indicates a 56% probability that OpenAI will adhere to its commitment regarding military use of AI, slightly favoring the YES side. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a more skeptical outlook, with a 53% chance for NO, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side. The confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting uncertainty as the deadline approaches.

• 1 Current market probability favors YES at 56%, indicating some confidence in OpenAI's commitment.
• 2 Pulse AI probability suggests skepticism, with NO slightly favored at 53%.
• 3 The edge of -9 points indicates the NO side may be undervalued in the current market.
• 4 Confidence in the market is moderate at 60/100, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 6978 hours, allowing for potential developments to influence sentiment.