Markets / Other / Will "Physics of RL: Toy scaling laws for the emerg..." make...

Manifold Other Expires in 611 days OPEN

Will "Physics of RL: Toy scaling laws for the emerg..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

10.71%

Market YES

89.29%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

15.71%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +5 pts

Low probability for the post to make the top fifty in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review.

The market shows a strong inclination towards 'NO', indicating skepticism about the post's chances of ranking in the top fifty. With a market probability of 89.29% for 'NO', it suggests that participants believe other posts will likely overshadow it. The confidence level is moderate at 40/100, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current sentiment heavily favors 'NO' with 89.29% probability.
2 The Pulse AI probability is slightly more optimistic at 15.71% for 'YES'.
3 The edge of 5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.
4 Confidence level at 40/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
5 Time to expiry is significant at 16450 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.