Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of a ceasefire agreement by August 2026.

Current market probabilities show a strong inclination against a ceasefire, with 80.46% of participants predicting no agreement. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for a ceasefire, indicating some uncertainty in the market. Overall, confidence levels are moderate, reflecting the complex geopolitical landscape.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a continuation of hostilities.
• 2 The disparity between market and AI probabilities suggests differing perspectives on potential outcomes.
• 3 Confidence level at 55/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments in the geopolitical situation.
• 5 Liquidity appears limited, which may affect the responsiveness of the market to new information.