Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?

Market leans towards Russia not controlling 85% of the annexed oblasts by October 2026.

The market shows a higher probability for the NO outcome, indicating skepticism about Russia's ability to maintain control over the annexed regions. With a confidence level of 50/100 and an edge of -1, the data suggests uncertainty in the current geopolitical landscape.

• 1 Current market probability favors NO at 57%, indicating doubt about Russian control.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment, suggesting consensus on the NO outcome.
• 3 The edge of -1 reflects insufficient data for a strong prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 5432 hours, allowing for potential shifts in dynamics.
• 5 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, highlighting uncertainty in future developments.