Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?

Low probability of Russia detonating a nuclear device in Ukraine by 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 4% chance of Russia detonating a nuclear device on Ukrainian soil by the end of 2026, with a strong consensus against this event occurring. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 9%, but overall sentiment remains firmly in the 'NO' camp. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 96%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 9% for 'YES'.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant at over 6700 hours.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 5.