Markets / Other / Will some members (1 or more) leave the EU (European Union) ...
Manifold Other Expires in 141 days OPEN

Will some members (1 or more) leave the EU (European Union) before 2027?

5.47%
Market YES
94.53%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
8.47%
AI YES
60
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +3 pts

Low probability of EU member exits before 2027, with market favoring stability.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that no EU members will leave before 2027, with a 94.53% probability for 'NO'. The AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for exits at 8.47%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards stability within the EU.
  • 2 Historical trends show low rates of EU member exits since its formation.
  • 3 Market pricing suggests a balanced view with minimal speculative pressure.
  • 4 The time to expiry allows for potential developments but remains stable.
  • 5 Liquidity in the market appears sufficient to support current probabilities.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major political shifts in EU member states
Economic crises prompting exit discussions
Significant public referendums on EU membership
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $2,404
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Status Open
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